Conventional wisdom guides many perceptions about hiring, job performance, and overall success. Though certain ideas may be useful, some don’t stand up to scrutiny. To predict job performance over time, consider tools that offer real insight.
Worst Predictors of Job Performance
“Some of the most relied-on assessments of job capability,” writes eskill’s Dalia Gulca, “…are actually some of the worst predictors of hiring success — completely useless for determining whether a hire is good or not.” These assessments include:
- Years of experience. This metric doesn’t distinguish between high and low performers; it merely indicates the passage of time.
- First impressions. Hiring based on first impressions values superficial characteristics like attractiveness, a firm handshake, or an assertive smile, which don’t indicate job performance.
- Tricky questions. While some hiring managers enjoy watching someone squirm when asked what they’d do during a zombie attack, the answer is merely an interesting conversation rather than an indicator of success.
- Education and college grades. While the ability to do well in school may have a small correlation with work ethic, it doesn’t indicate all the skills and aptitudes that may be needed for job success.
- Interests and hobbies. Hobbies may indicate aptitude for certain jobs – e.g. art for design work – and may help indicate a culture fit, but they are rarely helpful for predicting future success.
Six Tools to Predict Job Performance
1. Reverse engineer successful hires
This approach studies successful employees to analyze indicators along the way that may predict a similarly successful future hire. You can review interview questions and answers, and early training and onboarding experiences. “Equally important,” says health industry talent leader Mark Linville, “is analyzing “mis-hires” to understand what creates false positives in the interview process, helping eliminate factors that may appear promising but don’t actually predict success.”
2. Check your biases
Unconscious bias and discrimination – by ruling out “Black-sounding” names, for example – can be a risk of hiring by first impression or biased intuition. “This type of fast thinking—by time-crunched hiring managers quickly sorting candidates into yes and no piles—can lead to lawsuits,” say Deloitte HR specialists, “to say nothing of neglected job candidates and foregone workforce diversity.”
3. Employ traditional data-gathering sources
Deloitte insights further found that analytics of all kinds can be an excellent predictor of success. A sporting goods retailer, for example, found that “people who love the outdoors” performed better than those with more basic sales skills. “The results of work samples, tests of general cognitive ability, the results of structured interviews, and tests of such non-cognitive abilities as conscientiousness are all (to varying degrees) predictive of future job performance.”
4. Use a pre-assessment tool
Applicant tracking systems like ApplicantStack give you the capability to create and administer a pre-screening questionnaire. Filtering out unsuitable candidates from the start saves your staff from hiring fatigue. A pool of quality potential hires saves you from hiring someone too quickly based on insufficient information.
5. Use assessments in place of interviews
Rather than asking candidates to recount past work or success, employ a non-traditional interview approach where candidates demonstrate their soft skills. By having them walk in the shoes of the job, you can see how they would approach a real-life problem. This approach assesses whether they actually possess the skills listed on their resume and how quickly they can apply the skills you consider most vital for the role. For candidates who appear nervous or unskilled in an interview, a role-specific test may reveal their competence and prove them to be a worthy hire.
6. Use current research into “behavioral insights
Three facets of behavioral analysis insights can be pivotal to predicting successful job performance:
- Bounded rationality: humans will make satisfactory rather than optimal choices to stay within the constraints of our own cognitive capability
- Bounded willpower: humans take actions that conflict with our own future self-interest
- Bounded self-interest: humans’ ability to care about others more than themselves is limited by the circumstances
Studying this research can help HR professionals reject conventional thinking about how humans behave now and in the future, and hold each candidate up to scrutiny within this model.
Hiring can be an overwhelming prospect, filled with more questions than answers at the beginning. While it may be tempting to take the easy road and stick with the more traditional and overly simplistic approaches, those may not produce the quality hires you’re looking for. By employing these six tools, you can better understand your potential hires and choose someone who can go the distance with your company.
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